The Home of Steven Barnes
Author, Teacher, Screenwriter

Thursday, February 09, 2006

On Iran and Nukes

Remember: I DON'T WANT MORE NATIONS HAVING NUKES.  Anything I say below has to be held remembering that I'm not saying "it's o.k."
I was asked the following:  If the Iranian government wants nuclear weapons for deterrance, then:

"1) why doesn't the Iranian government say that instead of pretending that they are developing nuclear power for peaceful reasons.

2) Since the program was begun before the invasion of Iraq, why did they suddenly come to believe they needed such a deterrent?

3) Since Iraq was invaded, why do they believe that they are subject to invasion now? I mean we've been there for what, three years now and haven't invaded? And the only postureing for invasion is a direct result of their nuclear ambitions. Seems odd."
1) Because if they say they want them for deterrance, they have to admit they're making weapons.  If they admit that, they are less likely to have the chance to develop them.  It profits them not at all to say anything about it until they have  them--BEFORE they do, it just increases the chance they'll never get them, due to actions of the nations who want to restrict the size of "Club Nuke."

2) who said it was sudden?  It was probably a matter of long, loud debate.  They then, after deciding, had to decide HOW to implement the program.  I can promise you that the invasion of Iraq increased their fear and sense of urgency, though. 

3)  If someone I mistrusted invaded my neighbor, I'd simply assume I was next.  I would expect them to consolidate their position and then move on.  Three years ain't much time, guy.  Given who they are, and what we just did, why in the world should they trust us?  Would you, if you were them?  It's not odd at all.  Its pure human nature.  If Germany invades Poland, if I am Russia I'd start cleaning my weapons.  And if Der Furher spent a decade protesting only peaceful intentions, I wouldn't listen to a single thing he said.  History suggests  that those who relax when their enemies get closer get killed in their sleep.  We "know" we are the good guys.  Why, we wouldn't attack for no reason, right?  So what are they afraid of, right?  Even if you're absolutely right about us being the good guys, do you really think that's the way Iran sees us? 

Now, that being said, I'm not saying that they might not want to nuke Israel.  But considering that Israel has probably let it be known through back-door diplomatic channels that if they are nuked, they will nuke Mecca, I tend to doubt Iran really wants to go down that road.


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